Thursday, April 26, 2012

Because the World Needs Another Mock Draft

Beyond politics, one of my constant obsessions is sports.  I'm a stat junkie, be it polling numbers or combine stats.  The NFL Draft is the epitome of statistical analysis, projections based upon measurable figures and past results, and cost analysis, so it fits in nicely with things I (being a huge nerd) enjoy.

Thursday, March 29, 2012

A Fool's Convention

Every time another state votes, another major political figure endorses, or another "true conservative" feels the need to reaffirm their devotion to purity, there remains a group of people calling for a brokered convention.  These not-Romney devotees insist that Mitt must be fought all the way to Tampa, and that a floor fight at the RNC Convention would be better for the GOP than Romney's nomination.  Among this group are Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, both of whom have stated that their campaign's new goal is to force a second ballot in Tampa in hopes of claiming the nomination there.

Now when I first began writing to point out the idiocy of this notion, I was focusing on the realities of delegate allocation going forward.  I actually have an unpublished post about 90% finished that illustrates how there's no plausible path for Santorum to surpass Romney in the delegate count or the popular vote.  (if enough people are interested in it, I can finish & post it in a matter of minutes).  But I stopped that effort for this one because the math has been discussed extensively by others to no effect.  Despite this reality, there remains this group that insists a brokered convention will happen and that it is a good thing for the party.

So instead of rehashing a point these people have tuned out, I'm going to approach this differently.  For this post, let's explore the concept of going to Tampa without a clear nominee and the many ways in which such an effort would be abysmal.

Thursday, March 22, 2012

The Upcoming Attacks on Mitt Romney

Fresh off a decisive victory in Illinois and an ever increasing advantage in delegates, Mitt Romney seems all but certain to be the Republican nominee to face President Obama.  Although some of Romney's Republican opponents have at times claimed there to be no real difference between the Governor and the current administration, the reality is that this election will afford Americans a clear choice over what direction they want the nation to pursue.

The Obama campaign and his liberal allies are already plotting their lines of attack against Governor Romney.  Like other unpopular incumbents of the past, they understand that their best chance at winning re-election rests in making their opponent unacceptable to most voters.

In anticipation of what is to come, I thought I would provide all of you with a preview of what will be said.  With each major talking point, I'll even break down the facts surrounding each claim and whether or not you should believe it in the debut of the Coelh-i-fact rating system.

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Road to Tampa

Over half the delegates to the Republican convention in Tampa have yet to be chosen.  The rules that guide how the 22 remaining states (and D.C.) allocate their delegates is something most people understandably do not know.  What's disappointing is the seeming inability of the so-called "experts" to properly educate themselves on this.  Some have claimed California and/or Texas are winner-take-all for the whole slate, but they're not.  As recently as 2 days ago, CNN's delegate calculator regarded Wisconsin, Indiana, and Pennsylvania as winner take all, wrong in all 3 cases (between Sunday & today this has finally been changed.

So this post is a reference sheet for all of you as the process continues on over the next three months.  No opinion or predictions contained here, just the facts about what's to come.

Monday, March 5, 2012

Super Tuesday Preview

Tomorrow is Super Tuesday, and with it comes a pivotal moment in the Republican primary battle.  Ten states with over 400 delegates will hold their primary or caucus.  These states come from all regions of America, and after tomorrow 22 states will have cast their votes in the process (23 if you count Missouri, though their actual delegate-related caucus is not for 2 weeks).  Going into these contests, I'm going to give you an overview of these states to let you know what to expect & a county or two in each state worth watching as the returns come in.

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

The Smoke Filled Room

There's been a lot of talk among some Republicans of a brokered convention in August.  They envision some idyllic environment where a sudden spark of inspiration drives the party en masse to one not yet running political figure who will have none of the perceived or genuine faults found in the current field.  This, some feel, will be that moment where the heart of the party seizes control of the party!

Of course this view stems from a certain naivete about what such an event would entail and create.  There are a myriad of problems that would come from a candidate with no money, campaign staff/organization, defined platform, or strong name ID suddenly being thrust into the race with Obama 2 months out, but one of the great misconceptions is the idea that this could be an organic movement.  The brokered conventions of the pre-primary era brought the term of the "smoke filled room" into the American lexicon, and such an occurrence today would likely be resolved by the same conclave of power brokers (after all, someone would have to pick a candidate).

Some would still see this as leading to a better outcome.  Perhaps, but remember this: once they get in that room, they can settle on anyone.

With that in mind, let me take you to a smoke filled hotel room in Tampa, FL on August 29, 2012...

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

The Road to Super Tuesday (and Beyond)

Tomorrow is the Florida primary's election day.  In the first closed primary of the campaign, around 2 million Floridians will go to the polls and choose who they want to be the nominee.  For a 2-3 day period immediately following South Carolina, it seemed as though Newtmentum might be enough to take the Sunshine State's 50 delegates as well.  But after a week of aggressive ad buys & 2 strong debate performances, Team Mitten has a lead anywhere from 5 to 20 points in winner-take-all Florida (my prediction for tomorrow is an 11 percent win, 43-32).  All the candidates vow to go on, but as we look at the road to Super Tuesday Mittmentum would seem to have very few places to be derailed.