Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Road to Tampa

Over half the delegates to the Republican convention in Tampa have yet to be chosen.  The rules that guide how the 22 remaining states (and D.C.) allocate their delegates is something most people understandably do not know.  What's disappointing is the seeming inability of the so-called "experts" to properly educate themselves on this.  Some have claimed California and/or Texas are winner-take-all for the whole slate, but they're not.  As recently as 2 days ago, CNN's delegate calculator regarded Wisconsin, Indiana, and Pennsylvania as winner take all, wrong in all 3 cases (between Sunday & today this has finally been changed.

So this post is a reference sheet for all of you as the process continues on over the next three months.  No opinion or predictions contained here, just the facts about what's to come.

Illinois (today) - 54 of Illinois' 9 overall delegates are chosen today.  While the statewide popular vote will be the story, no delegates are awarded statewide.  Each of the state's 18 Congressional districts will elect delegates to the convention by voting for the name of the delegate, in what is known as a 'loophole' primary.  The state's rules do dictate that these delegates have their candidate preference indicated, thus supporters of a candidate are likely to vote exclusively for their choice's delegate slate.  14 of the 18 districts elect 3 delegates, with the 4th and 7th only choosing 2 and the 15th/18th 4.  Note: Rick Santorum did not file delegate slates in the 4th, 5th, 7th, or 13th districts, making him unable to win any of the 10 delegates from those districts.


On June 8th, the Illinois GOP state convention will choose 12 more delegates to attend the RNC convention.  These delegates will be technically unbound, though it is likely that a prospective delegate's declared affiliation will play some role in the process.  As with every state, the 2 RNC committee members representing the state along with the state party chairman will attend the convention as delegates, and Illinois' are free to support any candidate of their choice.

Louisiana (3/24) - 20 of their 46 delegates are tied to the primary, where the number is proportioned among any candidates winning at least 25% of the statewide vote.  On June 2, 23 more will be chosen at the state convention.  3 delegates are assigned out of each of Louisiana's 6 Congressional districts based upon district convention results.  Officially uncommitted, these delegates can be bound to district results by a committee vote.  5 more delegates will be chosen by the state executive committee, officially free to support the candidate of their chosen.  LA's RNC committee members & state chairman are also unbound.

District of Columbia (4/3) - 16 delegates are elected on April 3, a winner take all contest to whomever receives the most votes. Note: Rick Santorum did not qualify for the ballot in DC. The 3 party leader delegates attend unbound to any candidate.

Maryland (4/3) - 37 delegates are tied to the state's primary.  The winner in each of Maryland's 8 Congressional districts will win all 3 of the district's delegates.  The statewide winner receives all 10 at-large delegates elected, and the 3 state party leaders will also be required to cast their votes in support of the statewide winner.

Wisconsin (4/3) - Wisconsin has 42 delegates, and their allocation process is identical to Maryland's above.  Each district has 3 delegates that will be winner take all, and 15 statewide at-large delegates go to the state's winner.  The 3 party leaders who attend the convention will be allocated to the statewide winner.

Delaware (4/24) - Delaware is winner take all.  14 statewide at-large delegates go to the winner, and the 3 party leaders who will attend are also required to support the statewide winner.

Rhode Island (4/24) - 16 delegates are tied to RI's primary results, 8 for each CD.  Delegates are awarded proportionally in each district to candidates who win at least 15% of the statewide vote.  The state's 3 party leaders attend the convention officially unbound.

Connecticut (4/24) - Each of Connecticut's 5 CD's awards all 3 of its delegates to the candidate receiving the most votes in the district.  10 statewide at-large delegates are distributed proportionally to candidates winning at least 20% statewide, unless one candidate wins a majority of the vote in which case that candidate receives all 10.  The state's 3 party leaders attend the convention unpledged.

Pennsylvania (4/24) - Like Illinois, Pennsylvania holds a loophole primary.  There will be a (meaningless) statewide preference vote for candidates, but voters in each district will elect 59 of the state's 72 delegates by name (districts 4, 7, 8, 12, 18 elect four each, while all other districts elect three).  Unlike Illinois, prospective delegates are listed solely by name, with no indication of what candidate each supports.  Each delegate will officially attend the convention as an unpledged delegate.

On June 10th, the PA Republican state committee will choose 10 more at-large delegates to attend the convention.  These delegates will also be officially unpledged, along with the 3 party leader delegates.

New York (4/24) - New York elects 92 of its 95 delegates in their primary.  Each of the state's 29 CD's is assigned 2 delegates, both of which are awarded to whomever wins the vote of that district.  34 at-large delegates are divided proportionally among those candidates who receive at least 20% of the vote, unless 1 candidate receives a majority of the statewide vote.  Should that happen, all 34 statewide delegates are awarded to that candidate.

NY's 3 party leaders attend the convention as unpledged delegates.

West Virginia (5/8) - 28 delegates are elected by West Virginia voters.  Candidates to be delegates are listed on the ballot, along with their declared presidential preference.  Each CD elects the 3 delegates who receive the most votes, and 19 delegates are elected via statewide vote.  The state's 3 party leaders attend the convention unbound.

Indiana (5/8) - 27 delegates are chosen via the IN primary.  In each of the state's 9 CD's, 3 delegates will be awarded to the candidate receiving the most votes in that district.  None are tied to the statewide vote.

On June 8th and 9th, the GOP state convention selects 16 more delegates.  These people are officially unpledged to any candidate.  The state's 3 party leaders will also be unpledged delegates.

North Carolina (5/8) - The 52 delegates elected by NC voters will be awarded in a directly proportional way by the state party chairman.  No minimal vote percentage threshold is required for delegates (app. 1.92%=1 delegate).  The state's 3 party leaders will attend the convention unbound.

Oregon (5/15) - Oregon elects 25 delegates on a purely proportional basis, with a candidate needing 3.5% of the statewide vote to be eligible.  The state's 3 party leaders attending the convention will be unpledged delegates.

Nebraska (5/15) - The state's primary is strictly advisory: no delegates will be awarded based upon its result.  At a state convention on July 14th, 32 delegates are to be chosen.  Candidates for these delegate spots will be required to state their presidential preference, and they shall be bound to that preference.  The state's 3 party leaders attending shall be unpledged delegates.

Arkansas (5/22) - Arkansas chooses 33 delegates through its primary.  Each of the state's 4 CD's awards 3 delegates.  Should a candidate receive a majority of the vote in a district, he shall receive all 3.  If no one has a majority, the candidate with the most votes receives 2 delegates & the next highest candidate receives 1.  Twenty-one delegates are elected statewide.  Any candidate who wins 15% of the statewide vote receives 1 delegate.  If a candidate has a statewide vote majority, he receives all delegates remaining after the single delegate allotment to those at 15%.  If no one exceeds 50%, the remainder of the at-large pool is divided proportionally among the 3 highest vote recipients who have reached 15%.

The state's 3 party leaders attended the convention will do so as unpledged delegates.

Kentucky (5/22) - 42 delegates are chosen through the Kentucky primary.  In each of KY's  Cong. districts, 3 delegates will be alloted to the candidate winning the most votes in that district.  24 statewide at-large delegates are divided proportionally among those candidates receiving at least 15% of the statewide vote.  Kentucky's 3 party leader delegates will attend the convention unpledged.

Texas (5/29) - After a long legal battle over their Congressional map pushed it back nearly 3 months, Texas will hold its primary the last Tuesday of May.  152 delegates will be awarded proportionally.  The actual process is somewhat complex, with delegates selected based upon where a candidate had his best performance, but the final totals will mirror the overall result of the statewide vote (app. 0.66% of the statewide vote will = 1 delegate).

The state's 3 party leaders will attend as unpledged delegates.

Montana (6/5) - Montana's GOP primary will not directly impact delegate allotments.  At a state convention June 14th-16th, the state's 23 delegates will be chosen.  These delegates will go to the convention unpledged, unless the convention declares otherwise.  The state's 3 party leaders attending will be unpledged delegates.

New Mexico (6/5) - 20 delegates are awarded proportionally among those candidates winning at least 15% of the statewide vote.  The state's 2 RNC committee members & state chairman will attend the convention as unbound delegates.

South Dakota (6/5) - 25 delegates are tied to the state's primary.  These will be awarded proportionally among those candidates receiving at least 20% of the vote.

New Jersey (6/5) - New Jersey is a winner take all state, with 47 delegates awarded to the statewide winner & the state's 3 party leaders bound to NJ's winner.

California (6/5) - 169 delegates are chosen in the California primary.  Each of CA's 53 Congressional districts elects 3 delegates on a winner take all basis to the candidate receiving the most votes in that district. 10 statewide delegates will be awarded to the candidate who wins the statewide vote.  California's 3 party leaders will attend as unpledged delegates.

Utah (6/26) - Utah is winner take all statewide.  37 elected delegates & the state's 3 state leader delegates will go to the convention pledged to the state's winner.


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