Wednesday, May 13, 2015

UK Election Post-Mortem

David Cameron is now poised to go down in history as one of the UK’s greatest political leaders of the last century.  No really, he is.  In the wake of winning a surprising majority in Parliament complete with a new 5 years in office, the Cameron record after about a decade and counting as leader of the Conservatives (half of that time spent as Prime Minister) is objectively reaching these levels.

Monday, May 4, 2015

A Labour of Love, or a Tory'd Affair?

In 72 hours, UK voters will be going to the polls to vote in an election that could prove to be an historic political realignment for their country.  And while the use of the phrase "most important election of our lifetime" has been used by so many here that it has been reduced to cliche, this truly could prove to be the most critical election for the British people in decades.

Depending on what the 650 constituencies of England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland decide, the UK could find itself on the final path to Scotland severing itself from the Union, on a path that could break them off from the European community in 2 years time, or maybe even both.  The old 2-party Conservative-Labour system (with the Liberal Democrats at times operating as a quasi-major party) seems to be crumbling apart, with now a second straight election without a party winning a majority of seats seeming to be a certainty.

The impact of this election given the UKs diplomatic and economic power will inevitably reverberate to our shores on some level as well.  So if you're an informed person in the American political sphere, but couldn't tell Nigel Farage from Nicola Sturgeon, then this analysis of what to expect is just what you need.  There are many questions still unanswered that will leave a much wider range of uncertainty in my predictions than prior, conventional election environments produced, and I'll address the 6 biggest questions that will shape what the next UK Parliament looks like. But first, an overview of what my statistical analysis says is the most likely result on Thursday evening...